Monday, 9 September 2013

Rajan did not predict the crisis of 2008 anymore than he predicted the crises of '05, '06, and '07. And he has not stabilized the rupee yet.


There's been a lot of talk lately about how a certain Raghuram Rajan "predicted" in 2005 the crisis of 2008 and how he stabilized the Indian rupee shortly after taking charge as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India.I don't think he did either. In case of the rupee he has at least not done so yet.

Every Tom, Dick and Harry who gets published in a business newspaper has gone on record saying that Raghuram Rajan predicted the crisis of 2008 in 2005. What he apparently did was to ask a question: "whether banks will be able to provide liquidity to financial markets so that if the tail risk does materialize, financial positions can be unwound and losses allocated so that the consequences to the real economy are minimized". If this amounts to predicting the crisis, then Rajan has underperformed the average economist,who is expected to predict nine out of five crises. Rajan predicted the crises of 2005 through 2008, but only one of these predictions was validated. One out of four is way less than five out of nine.   

The large appreciation the Rupee enjoyed in the wake of his taking over the governorship also seems orchestrated. For a few days before the event, RBI intervened only intermittently in the forex market, but following Rajan's official takeover of the post, they actively sold dollars. For all we know, should RBI find itself incapable or unwilling to further deteriorate its forex reserves, Rupee could find itself heading back on its depreciation track, to the Yen and beyond,  that it  would find itself on in the absence of the 'managed' part of the managed float that the USD-INR suffers from.    


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